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Budget Request Begins Shift Toward Balanced Defense Posture
05/07/2009 Today’s release of the Obama Administration’s FY 2010 budget request signals a new direction for the Department of Defense. While the top-line budget figures and many of the programmatic decisions have already been released, the detailed budget unveiled today provides some clues as to how the new administration plans to remake the Defense Department. It begins the process of rebalancing the DoD’s portfolio of programs and activities to align them better with the national defense strategy.
Gates Submits Reform Budget for FY2010
05/07/2009 Secretary Gates termed the FY 2010 defense budget a “reform budget.” With today’s release of the detailed budget request, we begin to see what shape that reform will take and where he intends to lead the Department. This budget is a departure from the previous administration’s budgets.
Assessment of Secretary Gates' Decisions with CSBA's Defense Program Outlined in the "Strategy for the Long Haul"
04/10/2009 On April 6, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates announced substantial changes to the defense program that bring it more in line with CSBA’s "Strategy for the Long Haul” series of monographs. The reports are the culmination of over two years of research and analysis by CSBA, and assess existing and emerging challenges to US security, defense resources, the military services and their programs, America’s alliance structure, and strategy. This is a comparison of CSBA’s recommendations with the decisions made by Secretary Gates.
Gates Fires Opening Salvo in the Obama Administration's Defense Review
04/06/2009 CSBA's Comment on Secretary Gates' Announcement 25th Annual Pre-Budget Release Briefing
02/12/2009
Audio record of the briefing with Andrew Krepinevich and Stan Collender
Cost of the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Other Military Operations Through 2008 and Beyond
12/15/2008 In this report, Steven Kosiak, Vice President for Budget Studies at CSBA offers a comprehensive picture of the direct budgetary costs of US military operations conducted since 2001. The report also discusses the means used to budget for and finance these operations, and includes projections of how much more these operations might cost over the coming decade.
FY2009 Defense Appropriations Act
10/22/2008 Analysis of the September 24, 2008 conference agreement on the FY 2009 defense appropriations act
Comparison of the FY 2009 Senate and House Defense Authorization Bills
09/17/2008 On April 30, 2008, the full Senate passed its version of the fiscal year (FY) 2009 defense authorization act. The House passed its version of the bill on May 22. This Update provides a brief assessment of how these two bills compare, both to each other and to the administration’s request. The administration’s defense budget request is also working its way through the House and Senate appropriations process.
Analysis of Proposals to Allocate Four Percent of GDP to Defense
09/09/2008 Although proponents of the “four percent solution” have sometimes been imprecise in terms of exactly what they are proposing, many proposals appear to call for spending at least four percent of GDP on defense exclusive of war costs. This analysis offers a brief assessment of the logic and wisdom of adopting such an approach. 
Defense Investment Strategies in an Uncertain World
08/21/2008 This report provides a framework for thinking about investment strategies at a time when the United States is at war, and facing the need to transform its military owing to the likelihood of significant shifts in the character of the military competition. 
U.S. Defense Budget -- Options and Choices for the Long Haul
08/21/2008 This report overviews the budget environment and explores a range of options to make the Services’ plans more affordable. 
Investment Strategies Presentation
08/21/2008 Presentation slides from August 21, 2008 Strategy for the Long Haul initiative launch.
Classified Funding in the FY 2009 Defense Budget Request
06/18/2008
Analysis of the FY 2009 Defense Budget Request
04/21/2008 There is considerable uncertainty concerning the amount of funding needed to cover the cost of the ongoing military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. It is similarly unclear how much funding would be needed to fully implement the Services’ long-term force structure, readiness and modernization plans. However, because of cost growth in weapons acquisition programs, as well as military personnel and operations and maintenance (O&M) activities, it is likely that implementing those plans would require spending substantially more on defense than proposed by the administration. Moreover, because of changing demographics, rising health care costs and other factors it may prove difficult to sustain such high defense spending levels.
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED FUNDING FOR DEFENSE: PRESENTATION OF THE FY 2009 REQUEST IN TABLES AND CHARTS
03/31/2008 This Update includes seven tables and three graphs that present key defense budget data recently released as part of the administration’s FY 2008 budget submission.
Overview of the Administration's FY 2009 Request for Homeland Security
03/30/2008 Estimating how much needs to be spent on homeland security in order to protect the United States effectively from terrorist attacks is an extremely difficult task—far beyond the scope of this brief overview of the administration’s funding request for FY 2009. Given the enormous challenges related to homeland security that the United States faces, it is possible that substantially more funding may be needed than has been proposed by the administration.
FY 2009 Request
02/04/2008 FY 2009 Request Would Bring DoD Budget to Record (or Near-Record) Levels
Financial Action on the FY 2008 Defense Appropriations Act
12/20/2007 This analysis provides a brief description of the FY 2008 DoD appropriations act.
The Cost of US Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan
09/13/2007 This paper provides an estimate of how much funding has been provided for military operations in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere since FY 2001, describes how that funding has been provided and allocated among different programs and activities, provides a range of estimates of how much funding might be required for 2008 and beyond, and compares the cost of these operations to past wars.
Comparison of the FY 2008 House and SASC Defense Authorization Bills
08/13/2007 This analysis provides a brief comparison of the House and SASC versions of the FY 2008 defense authorization act.
Classified Funding in the FY 2008 Defense Budget Request
07/25/2007
Analysis of the FY 2008 Defense Budget Request
06/07/2007 in coming years pressure will grow for DoD to scale back its plans, including both major modernization efforts (e.g., the F-35, FCS and DDG 1000 programs) and force structure plans. There is good reason to believe that by adopting a scaled-back and more transformation-oriented defense plan the United States could avoid (or offset) much of the cost growth that is otherwise projected in DoD’s plans, by CBO and others, and still adequately meet its security requirements. However, so long as a large US military presence is required in Iraq or it is deemed necessary to maintain the capability to conduct such large-scale stability operations in the future, it will be difficult or impossible to make reductions in some programs and activities—especially in Army and Marine Corps force structure.
Historical and Projected Funding for Defense: Presentation of the FY 2008 Request in Tables and Charts
06/07/2007 This Update includes seven tables and three graphs that present key defense budget data recently released as part of the administration’s FY 2008 budget submission. These tables and graphs include: National Defense Budget Authority and Outlays; National Defense Budget Authority, FY 1946–2012; National Defense Budget Authority, FY 1946–2012; National Defense Outlays, FY 1946–2012; DoD Budget Authority by Title; FY 2008 Request for Selected Weapon Systems; DoD Budget by Service, FY 1980–2013; FY 2008 Federal Budget Request in Outlays; National Defense, Federal Spending and the Gross Domestic Product; Defense Spending as a Share of GDP.
Both DoD Base and War Budgets Receive Big Boosts
02/05/2007 The Bush Administration today announced that it will request some $483 billion to cover the peacetime costs of Department of Defense (DoD) in fiscal year (FY) 2008.1 In addition to this funding in DoD’s “base” budget, the administration’s latest plan includes a request for $141.7 billion to cover the FY 2008 costs of the Global War on Terror (GWOT), including military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Thus, altogether, under the new plan DoD is projected to receive some $624.6 billion in FY 2008.
Overview of the Administration's FY 2007 Request for Homeland Security
6/26/2006 The Bush Administration’s fiscal year (FY) 2007 budget request includes $58.3 billion for homeland security. About $27.8 billion of this request is allocated to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Steven Kosiak breaks down the numbers.
Classified Funding in the FY 2007 Defense Budget Request
5/17/2006 FY 2007 DoD Budget inludes most classified acquisition funding since Cold War (FY 1988). Steven Kosiak presents key DoD budget data.
Analysis of the FY 2007 Defense Budget Request
04/25/2006 An anlysis of the $562 billion request for national defense authority for fiscal year 2007.
Historical and Projected Funding For Defense: Presentation of the FY 2007 Request in Tables and Charts
4/07/2006 FY 2007 DoD Budget likely to hit $513 Billion. Steven Kosiak presents key DoD budget data in tables and graphs.
FY 2007 Department of Defense Budget Priorities
03/01/2006 Testimony of Director of Budget Studies, Steven Kosiak before the House Armed Services Committee.
FY 2007 Request: DOD Budget Continues to Grow Amid Modest Program Cuts
2/06/2006 A first assessment of the FY 2007 Department of Defense budget request.
The Cost of US Military Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan through Fiscal Year 2006 and Beyond
1/04/2006 Analysis of spending related to the operations in Iraq and Afghanistan with a medium to long-term prognosis.
Cost Growth In Defense Plans, Wars In Iraq and Afghanistan Could Add Some $900 Billion to Projected Deficits
12/23/2005 CSBA finds that the administration’s defense budget projections may understate the cost of the current defense plan (including military operations) by some $800 billion over the coming decade (FY 2006-15).
The QDR and Long Range Surveillance and Strike: A Naval Perspective
11/10/2005 Slides from the congressional briefing on the QDR and long range surveillance and strike.
Comparison of the FY 2006 House and Senate Armed Services Committees' Defense Authorization Bills
10/05/2005 Comparison of the House and Senate Armed Services Committees Authorization bills for FY 2006.
Analysis of the FY 2006 Defense Budget Request
05/17/2005 An anlysis of the $441.8 billion request for national defense authority for fiscal year 2006, not including funds for Iraq and Afghanistan.
Overview of the Administration's FY 2006 Request for Homeland Security
05/03/2005 The Bush Administration's FY06 budget plan provides annual appropriations for Homeland Security at a level 165 percent higher than FY01.
FY 2006 Black Budget Estimates Table
03/28/2005 A table of estimates of DOD classified acquisition budgets as a companion to FY06 Classified Funding in the Defense Budget Request.
FY 2006 Black Budget Estimates
03/23/2005 A review of estimated accounts for the Department of Defense classified budget request.
FY 2006 Defense Budget Request: DOD Budget Remains on Upward Trajectory
02/04/2005 An initial review of the administration's FY06 Defense Budget request.
Funding for Defense, Military Operations, Homeland Security, and Related Activities since 9/11
10/18/2004 This piece provides an updated guide to spending on defense, homeland security and other activities above what would have been projected prior to the terrorist attacks of 9/11, some $513 billion.
Final action on the FY 2005 Defense Appropriations Act
08/04/2004 This update provides a brief summary of the conference agreement on the FY 2005 defense appropriations act. Among other things, it discusses how some of the main differences between the House and Senate defense appropriations bills were resolved in conference—including action on a select group of major weapons programs
Classified Budget in the FY2005 Defense Budget Request
07/28/2004 An analysis of the classified, or black budget, within the FY2005 defense budget.
Comparison of the FY 2005 House and Senate Defense Authorization Bills
06/25/2004 A comparison of the House and Senate version of the FY 2005 Defense Auhtorization bills prior to conference.
Cost Growth in Defense Plans, Occupations of Iraq and War on Terrorism Could Add Nearly $900 Billion To Projected Deficits
03/09/2004 A review of defense budget projections including FY 2005 defense budget requests, historical program cost growth assumptions and cost of ongoing operations.
FY 2005 Defense Budget Request: DoD Stays the Course on Spending Plans
01/30/2004 The Bush Administration has announced that it will request $401.7 billion for the Defense Department in FY 2005. Overall, the administration’s latest budget request and FYDP appear to closely resemble the funding plans released in February 2003. |
Annual Defense BudgetThe administration’s FY 2007 defense budget request continues the buildup in funding for defense begun in the late 1990s and accelerated after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. The request should be adequate to cover the FY 2007 costs of DoD’s modernization plans, and peacetime manning and operations and support activities. However, it is almost certain that some additional funding—above and beyond the $50 billion “bridge fund” the administration has said it will request for military operations next year—will need to be provided in FY 2007 to cover the full cost of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. It is possible that a future FY 2007 supplemental request to cover these costs could be as large as the $68 billion DoD supplemental request recently submitted by the administration to cover FY 2006 war costs. Under the administration’s plan, funding for defense, exclusive or war costs, is projected to continue to grow through FY 2009, and then decline slightly. However, by FY 2011 funding for defense (exclusive of war costs) would still be very high by historical standards—some 20 percent above average Cold War budget levels in real terms, and slightly above the average levels sustained even during the 1980s, the decade of the Reagan buildup. However, even defense budgets of this magnitude are unlikely to prove sufficient to pay for DoD’s long-term force structure, modernization and readiness plans. If history is any guide, operations and support costs and DoD’s modernization plans are likely to prove substantially more costly to execute than assumed by the administration. Studies conducted by CBO, CSBA and others suggest that fully implementing DoD’s plans, over the long-term, could require increasing funding for defense by an additional $75 billion or more per year beyond the levels called for in the administration’s current plan. On the other hand, sustaining even the level of funding increases projected for defense in the administration’s latest budget will be difficult. The long-term federal budget picture has dramatically worsened over the past two years. In early 2001, CBO projected a 10-year surplus of about $5.6 trillion over the FY 2002-11 period. By contrast, CBO’s baseline estimate now projects deficits totaling $726 billion over the next decade (FY 2007-16). The change in the government’s fiscal outlook has resulted from the enactment of large tax cuts, increases in defense and homeland security spending, the addition of the Medicare prescription drug benefit, and other factors. Unfortunately, it is likely that the outlook will deteriorate still further in coming years. In its latest request, the administration has proposed additional tax cuts and spending increases. If enacted these changes could increase total deficits to at least $2.1 trillion over the FY 2007-16 period, and quite possibly to $3-4 trillion. Moreover, the fiscal outlook is likely to deteriorate even more dramatically after the “baby boomer” generation begins retiring towards the end of the decade. In this environment, strong pressure may emerge to slow, or perhaps even reverse, the continued growth in funding for defense projected in the administration’s plan. This means that in coming years pressure will grow for DoD to scale back its plans, including both major modernization efforts (e.g., the F-35, FCS and DD(X) programs) and force structure plans. There is good reason to believe that by adopting a scaled-back and more transformation-oriented defense plan the United States could avoid (or offset) much of the cost growth that is otherwise projected in DoD’s plans, by CBO and others, and still adequately meet its security requirements. However, so long as a large US military presence is required in Iraq and elsewhere, it will be difficult or impossible to make reductions in some programs and activities—especially Army force structure. Alternatively, a decision could be made to address the ballooning budget deficit solely through reductions in domestic and entitlement (e.g., Social Security and Medicare) spending, or tax increases, leaving current defense plans unaffected. But such a choice would be politically difficult and, based on history, seems unlikely. In any case, whatever path is selected, effectively addressing the growing cost of DoD’s plans and the growing size of the federal deficit, will require making some very hard decisions. And the sooner those decisions are made the less painful they will be to carry out. Unfortunately, although the 2006 QDR and FY 2007 defense budget submission include some important new initiatives, for the most part, the Bush Administration kicked these hard decisions further down the road. |