CSBA Releases Paper on Iraq War Policy


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CSBA Releases Paper on Iraq War Policy

Alise Frye	Published 02/04/2003 Press Release

Contact: Alise Frye		PHONE: (202) 331-7990
February 04, 2003		FAX: (202) 331-8019

The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments released today “Preemption in Iraq: Rationale, Risks, and Requirements” by Dr. Andrew Krepinevich, executive director. This paper explores the possibility that the US will pursue a preventive or preemptive war strategy against Iraq.

Preventive war has been relatively rare throughout history, given the risks involved in initiating conflict. The question is one of balance – which is worse, the risk of conflict or the risk posed by inaction?

Dr. Krepinevich reviews the likely options for ongoing US relations to Iraq, including the likelihood of preventive attack; continued deterrence and containment; and enhanced inspection regimes. He concludes that a strong case can be made for preemption.

“For better or worse, US security and credibility are both on the line. The threat from Saddam Hussein’s regime is real and the means for legitimately dealing with it are limited,” said Dr. Krepinevich.

The paper outlines the risks, as well as the goals, specific to an Iraqi conflict. Of particular concern would be Iraq’s using WMD not only against US allied forces, but against the Iraqi people and their neighbors. Hussein’s government could also attack before the US and its allies are prepared to respond or may force high-risk urban warfare on combatants and non-combatants alike.

Dr. Krepinevich analyzes several military options. He concludes that a “fast squeeze” option best exploits US military advantages and despite its risks, is the most likely war plan for achieving a quick and decisive victory.

He also reviews the necessity of stabilizing Iraq – winning the peace as well as the war.

“Iraq’s continued viability as a state will likely require long-term commitment of US and hopefully allied forces in stability operations, in addition to a strong economic recovery program that provides incentives to maintain political stability,” observed Dr. Krepinevich.

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Click here to view the pdf of the report. (The report will open in a new window.)

The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) is an independent policy research institute established to promote innovative thinking about defense planning and investment strategies for the 21st century.