CSBA in the News

The Fiscal Commission draft report is unlikely to be fully enacted by Congress, but its findings could still influence the fate of several defense programs by giving ammunition to those who are gunning for new efficiencies no matter what.  The report’s recommendation to cancel the Marines’ EFV, for example, is “another nail in the coffin” for the long-gestating vehicle, says Dakota Wood of CSBA. “It certainly does seem there is a mounting set of issues, factors that do not bode well for the EFV,” Wood told Morning Defense. “My guess is the vehicle is going to be canceled.” Plus, senators have already primed the EFV for oblivion: In an unusual, but not completely unprecedented move, the Senate version of this year’s appropriations bill sets aside more than $183 million “for estimated termination costs should the program be canceled.”

According to Defense News, Chairman of the Defense Business Board Michael Bayer  said this means DoD will need to shift about $123 billion, rather than the original $103 billion to weapons programs, as Gates has prescribed to realize at least 1 percent growth in the defense budget over the next few years. But another Pentagon adviser, Andrew Krepinevich, president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, was skeptical of even those gains. “Gates may be able to hold on for a while,” he said, but predicted that “once the long knives come out,” DoD will have to reduce its budget “to address the nation’s fiscal situation.”

Improved border patrols by Afghan security forces, more U.S. troops, better tips from insurgents and intercepted communications have also resulted in more seizures, Morrison said. One seizure Sunday in Helmand province netted nearly 4,000 pounds of ammonium nitrate, the U.S. military said. The interdiction effort is worthwhile but exceptionally difficult, said Dakota Wood, a retired Marine officer and military analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. U.S. and Afghan officials have been encouraging farmers there to raise crops to bolster the economy and denying them fertilizers runs counter to that, he said. “You can’t ignore making an effort, but it will be hard to remove this from the bombmaking chain,” Wood said.

Gates wants the review to outline “what an expeditionary force and readiness should look like in the 21st century” amid the proliferation of long-range, anti-ship missiles, he said in an Aug. 12 address. “I think this is a strategic inflection point for the service in a number of areas,” said Dakota Wood, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments

Andrew Krepinevich, president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, told the conference that “DoD will be fortunate to even get 1 percent real growth.”For hardware programs, declining budgets will mean “recapitalization over modernization,” or buying more of the platforms already in use instead of costly new systems.”Gates may be able to hold on for a while, but once the long knives come out,” the Pentagon will be forced to reduce its budgets “to address the nation’s fiscal situation,” said Krepinevich, who is also a Pentagon adviser.

The proposed cuts to procurement might be the hardest for the U.S. military, said Todd Harrison, a defense budget expert at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington. While procurement spending has increased dramatically over the past decade, the extra money has not resulted in dramatic increases in military hardware. Instead, prices have increased substantially, Harrison said. A 15 percent cut in procurement would make it very difficult for the Navy to build the 313-ship fleet it wants and for the Air Force to reduce the average age of its aircraft, he said.