Mahnken asserted that the military needs more resources for both readiness and modernization. He noted the uniqueness of the recent drawdown in that it is the first one to occur “all the while the United States has been at war.” Mahnken said “the risk calculus has changed” with the return of great-power competition, citing Russia and China as challenging U.S. power in certain theaters. He recommended investing in capabilities in the high end of warfare. “We need a truly global strategy that also deals with regional challenges,” he said. He cautioned that the capacity of the Defense Department to effectively and rapidly absorb a large infusion of capital is limited, and that rebuilding the military — such as increasing the Navy’s battle fleet to 340 or 355 ships — will take time and cannot be completed in four or eight years.

The Defense Department defines readiness as the military’s ability to execute the national security strategy of the United States. By that standard, the Navy has continued to satisfy most of the maritime force requirements of combatant commanders. However, meeting those demands in the face of a shrinking fleet has resulted in deferred maintenance, aging ships, and worn out personnel. Without significant changes to the fleet’s size, operational tempo (OPTEMPO), or maintenance budget, the Navy will be at risk of suffering a precipitous drop in readiness in the years to come.

“Like the European powers at the start of World War I, we could find ourselves tremendously unprepared,” said Tom Mahnken, president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. “We’re likely to find ourselves surprised, and unpleasantly surprised.”

Many analysts outside of government have also converged on about 350 ships. “Independent analyses have been calling for a fleet of roughly that size for some time, to include the 2010 QDR Independent Panel, as well as CSBA’s recent alternative fleet architecture study,” said Tom Mahnken, president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Analyses, which Congress commissioned to do an (as yet unpublished) force structure assessment. 

Dr. Thomas Mahnken moderates a Defense Innovation Panel during FPI’s day-long forum addressing a range of national security and foreign policy issues. This portion included a panel discussion with national security experts on defense innovation and cybersecurity challenges.

"Regardless of the outcome of the presidential election, the Japan-US alliance will continue to be the foundation of the security of the Western Pacific Region.