Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Five CSBA experts significantly contributed to the efforts of the Commission on the National Defense Strategy for the United States. CSBA Counselor Ambassador Eric Edelman served as Vice Chair of the Commission. Commissioners included CSBA President Thomas G. Mahnken, CSBA Board Member GEN Jack Keane (USA, Ret.), and CSBA Council Member Roger Zakheim. CSBA Senior Fellow and Director of Defense Budget Studies Dr. Travis Sharp served as a key member of the Commission’s staff.

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CSBA is the world’s premier center for understanding future international competition and conflict. Our mission is to develop innovative, resource-informed defense concepts, promote public debate, and spur action to advance U.S. and allied interests. CSBA is a 501(c) 3 tax-exempt organization. 

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

This is the key finding of a commission established by Congress, which we chaired, to review the current National Defense Strategy, published in 2022. Our bipartisan, unanimous recommendations lay out the steps needed now to avoid this outcome.

RESEARCH STAFF

Greg Malandrino, Senior Fellow

Greg Malandrino is a senior fellow whose work focuses on future warfare, competitive strategies, and informationized warfare. He is a retired fighter pilot with over 25 years of naval service. His last job on active duty was in the Office of the Secretary of Defense’s Office of Net Assessment, where he served as the Senior Military Advisor to the Director, producing strategic-level insights for senior defense officials.

Casey Nicastro, Analyst

Casey Nicastro is an analyst whose work focuses on the defense budget, future warfare, and great power competition. He also manages CSBA's Strategic Choices Tool. Prior to becoming an analyst at CSBA, he served as a CSBA intern, working on issues related to U.S. and allied defense spending and force structure.

Thomas P. Mahnken, Research Assistant

Thomas P. Mahnken is a research assistant whose work focuses on military history and innovation. Prior to joining CSBA, he served as an intern in the Security Cooperation Directorate (J55) of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. 

Ava Manaker, Intern

Ava Manaker is an intern whose work focuses on Russian force structure and European security. Prior to joining CSBA, Ava was an analyst at the Department of Defense. She is also the recipient of a State Department scholarship to study critical languages.

OPERATIONS STAFF

Charlyne Ivory, Office Manager

Charlyne Ivory is a highly experienced office manager with a financial management, IT, and human resources background. With nearly 20 years of experience in management and administrative roles, she has worked in hospitality, real estate, and nonprofit organizations. Ms. Ivory also serves as a Notary Public in Maryland and the District of Columbia. 

Yesterday, the Commission on the National Defense Strategy for the United States released its final report, and today, Commissioners presented their unanimous conclusions and recommendations before Congress.

The independent, bipartisan Commission concludes that the United States urgently requires “substantial and wide-ranging change” to its defense and national security structure. Our current systems are outdated, bureaucratic, and overly political, preventing us from responding with the necessary urgency to the gravest threats our nation has faced since 1945. These include an emerging axis of authoritarianism opposed to U.S. interests and with it the growing potential for major war. The Commission calls for a comprehensive strategy incorporating all elements of national power and a Multiple Theater Force Construct to shape the capabilities needed to deter and defeat threats to U.S. security.

I am honored to have served as one of the eight Commissioners and to have been part of an effort to which five CSBA experts significantly contributed. CSBA Counselor Ambassador Eric Edelman served as Vice Chair of the Commission. My fellow Commissioners included CSBA Board Member GEN Jack Keane (USA, Ret.) and CSBA Council Member Roger Zakheim. CSBA Senior Fellow and Director of Defense Budget Studies Dr. Travis Sharp served as a key member of the Commission’s staff.

I extend my gratitude for their invaluable leadership and contributions to the NDS Commission Chair, the Honorable Jane Harman; fellow Commissioners Mara Rudman, Mariah Sixkiller, and Alissa Starzak; and the Commission’s staffers.

As an independent, non-partisan organization, CSBA is proud that its experts have played critical roles in this endeavor. Our dedication to shaping informed defense policies remains unwavering in our efforts to protect the United States, its allies, and its friends.

Sincerely, 

Thomas G. Mahnken

President and CEO

Many doubts have been raised about its practicality. This report addresses each of those critiques squarely. It concludes that some concerns are warranted but others have been ill-informed or driven by outdated assumptions.

The United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia have all committed substantial resources to ensure that the submarine program succeeds. Progress in most areas is impressive. Project planning is in an advanced state, programs of industrial expansion and modernisation are well underway, personnel recruitment and training are advancing, and the AUKUS submarine design should be finalised within 18 months.

AUKUS should deliver a powerful new level of deterrence to Australia. It will force any aggressive major power considering an assault across a major water gap in the Western Pacific to re-think their plans. And many of the strategic benefits will be delivered in 2027 when up to five jointly crewed allied nuclear-powered submarines commence routine operations from Australia.

Although there will be bumps along the way, Australia’s new submarines are likely to be delivered broadly as planned.

“Thane Clare, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and a former Navy officer who served as commander for the guided-missile destroyer the USS Mustin, said that in many cases, ultimate authority is in the hands of the secretary of defense. The military is capable of quick innovation of new technology — Clare pointed to defense production in the 1950s and 1960s — but it depends on urgency from those at the top. It’s partly a mix of bureaucracy, appropriations and the reality of developing, testing and then fielding any new weapon or military system. With the scope of the different fields needed to move a system or munition from concept to adoption, it comes down to isolating a specific issue to solve and having one person fully responsible for the work.”

Kanapathy also described some scenarios of China's invasion of Taiwan. Instead of a blockade scenario, he believed Xi Jinping would be very determined and deploy many forces. Kanapathy's assumption is based on his observation of the Taiwanese. He found them to be very resilient, willing to safeguard democracy, and, as a result, won't easily give up without a fight.

“There are many operational elements and systems needing refinement to conduct complex littoral operations well,” he said by email Wednesday.

“It is best to sort those things and conduct much of the necessary training in safe and well understood areas possessing advanced instrumented ranges and other excellent facilities.”

It is also generally less expensive to train in Australia’s vast spaces, he added.