The Pentagon's 2013 budget unveiled today by the Obama administration contains no big surprises. Most of the bombshells were dropped by Defense Secretary Panetta two weeks ago.
The proposal is President Obama's first full budget since the enactment of the Budget Control Act and also his first one where he is asking for a cut in defense spending. It seeks $525 billion for the Pentagon's base budget, a 1.6 percent decline in real terms from fiscal year 2012.
Anyone who might be trying to assess this budget's long-term implications for the U.S. military and defense industry will be disenchanted. It will be as futile as winter weather forecasting/.../
Analysts point out that the budget proposal is fraught with dubious assumptions. One is that a significant portion of the spending cuts that are built into the budget -- $259 billion over the next five years -- is based on wishful thinking. About $60 billion, or one-fourth of the cuts, are expected to come from phantom "efficiencies" that are unlikely to materialize, said Andrew Krepinevich, president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.
"We've been to this rodeo many times," he said. "Typically you don't end up getting anywhere near the savings you anticipate."
Another suspicious claim is that the Pentagon expects to save money by sharing more of the global policing burden with other nations.
Predictions that the U.S. military can outsource responsibilities to allies are laughable, Krepinevich said. Where's the help going to come from? Europeans are cutting back. Egyptians are putting Americans on trial. Iraq remains unstable. Pakistan is the "kind of ally that makes you scratch your head," he said.