It is an annual obligation of the Navy to tell Congress how many ships it will need over the next three decades and how much they will cost.
Each year, the Navy projects the fleet will grow in size as long as it gets the necessary funding. In the latest 30-year shipbuilding plan for fiscal year 2016, the goal is to reach 308 ships between 2022 and 2034, compared to 286 ships today.
The Navy’s civilian and military leadership has come under fire on Capitol Hill for failing to contain a gradual shrinkage of the fleet that began decades ago, and have insisted that there will be at least 300 ships by 2020.
But analysts believe that historical budget trends and political realities point to a far smaller Navy, one even smaller than today’s.
Between now and 2020, the Navy has an “unexecutable plan,” said naval analyst Bryan Clark, of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. The Navy on average has spent about $14 billion a year on new ship construction for the past three decades. To rise above 300 ships, it would need $2 billion to $3 billion more per year, and it would require $20 billion by 2021 to start building an expensive new ballistic missile submarine.
“Where do you get the money?” Clark asked. Congressionally mandated spending caps are in place for the Defense Department through 2021. The Navy, he said, is financially stretched to pay for its current obligations, let alone increase funding for the construction of future ships.