In an article in The Australian today — which is co-written by Thomas Mahnken, a former defence strategist for George W. Bush’s administration and now chief executive of the US Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments — they argue that Australia needs to get over ideological “hang-ups” on missile defence capability.
While backing the Turnbull government’s plans for missile-defence systems for deployed force protection, they argue that planning should begin for a longer-term continental missile shield for Australia — a position recently pushed by former Labor prime minister Kevin Rudd.
“Highly accurate cruise missiles and hypersonic anti-ship missiles are proliferating in the region and pose an increasing menace to deployed forces, such as Australia’s large amphibious ships,” the authors say.
“Australian military planners (also) need to grapple with the incipient threat posed to the mainland — particularly to defence facilities in northern Australia used by the ADF and rotating US forces — by China’s increasingly large and sophisticated long-range nuclear and conventional missile force.”
Mr Shearer and Dr Mahnken say the Pentagon’s most recent report to congress on China’s military power found that Beijing already possessed between 75 and 100 ICBMs, many with the range to strike northern Australia, and advanced designs able to deliver multiple warheads.
“As the range of Chinese and North Korean missiles grows and their arsenals expand, it will also be necessary to consider the need to protect Australia itself,” they say.
“Northern bases and the forces they host will be the first to come under threat, although over time the missile threat will likely extend to all of Australia.
“It is not too soon to begin thinking about the requirements of continental missile defence.”
The authors say Australia’s remote location “while still an advantage, no longer confers the level of safety … it once did”.
“In a world marked by growing missile arsenals, Australian security will increasingly depend upon active defences,” they say.
“Australia will need a layered series of defences to deal with increasingly sophisticated missile threats both to deployed forces and the Australian homeland.”