A decision to cut $350 billion in security spending over the next decade will force the Pentagon to make difficult trade-offs that could lead to layoffs, canceled weapons systems or a smaller nuclear arsenal.
"Personnel costs really are a major driver in the defense budget, so reducing the number of personnel can generate a significant amount of savings," said Todd Harrison, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, an independent national security think tank.
"I think they will want to reduce the total active duty end strength a bit. With the $350 billion cut, they won't have to do much," Harrison said, adding that the civilian work force would probably be trimmed back proportionately as well.
The overall annual per-person cost for active duty military personnel has risen by 46 percent in inflation-adjusted dollars over the past decade, to $121,600, Harrison said.
"They certainly can't continue allowing personnel costs to grow at that rate, but to really rein in the growth they'll have to make changes to healthcare benefits that they provide," he said.