Kate Blakeley, an analyst with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, said the opposition of fiscal conservatives in the House should not be discounted. "There's a huge catch to realizing this higher level of defense spending," she said. "This budget resolution faces strong resistance from the Freedom Caucus in the House, who've said they won't support it unless there's deeper mandatory spending cuts. The cuts already in the budget -- especially the partial conversion of Medicare into 'premium support' instead of a guaranteed benefit -- risk driving away moderate Republicans in the House." Blakeley said the budget resolution faces a "replay" of the healthcare battle in the House by "trying to get the Freedom Caucus and moderate Republicans through the eye of the needle together." "There's a real risk that either this budget resolution won't pass the House, or that the House and Senate won't be able to agree on identical budget resolutions," she said. "That would torpedo any prospect for reconciliation bills in FY 2018." The absence of a reconciliation bill would mean no path for greater defense spending without support from Democrats in the Senate, "which will come at the cost of foregoing cuts to mandatory programs, like Medicaid, and protecting current levels on non-defense discretionary spending, which the Freedom Caucus will vociferously oppose." At that point, she said, lawmakers will again be "back to square one, trying to hash out a budget deal between the House and Senate, and the defense hawks, Freedom Caucus and Democrats."
In the News