There’s not going to be an immediate “procurement shopping spree,” agreed Katherine Blakely of the Center for Strategic & Budgetary Assessments. Instead, the Mattis plan takes time to develop more advanced capabilities, particularly in the repeatedly-mentioned area of “lethality.” What does that mean? Future adversaries may be markedly more deadly, Blakeley says, which force the US to make its forces more lethal to match. Greater lethality also argues against over-investing in a small number of expensive, “exquisite” superweapons that can be taken down with a few good hits. (Think of the Death Star in Star Wars for the extreme example). The crucial “leading indicators” to watch, she said, will be whether the forthcoming budget emphasizes upgrading the lethality of existing systems — new missiles for old ships, for instance — and whether funding is forthcoming for the high-tech experiments of Carter’s Strategic Capabilities Office and Third Offset Strategy — Bob Work being the principal architect of offset since the start.
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