The debate about U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan beyond 2014 is ramping up, with dueling defense experts suggesting a force of more than 30,000 or fewer than 10,000.
But a third option — a complete withdrawal leaving no troops — is also a potential outcome, as U.S. decision-makers consider legal protections for American forces, domestic budget pressures and mounting threats elsewhere, some experts say/.../
“There are a number of plausible paths that get you to no American troops,” said Andrew Krepinevich, a retired Army officer and president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, a Washington think tank.
A post-2014 U.S. mission likely will cost $10 billion to $30 billion a year, in addition to the several billion dollars a year in direct financial support the Afghan army will need to operate.
“At a time when people are beginning to talk about cuts to Medicare and Social Security, I think we may have a situation where the American people start to look at that price tag and say, ‘If you’re going to cut things that are near and dear to my heart, I’m not sure I want to pony up a lot of money for troops in Afghanistan,’” Krepinevich said.
Even the Pentagon brass may reach a similar conclusion and prefer to “save some of that money to fund other defense programs to keep us ready for a range of challenges,” he said.
Yet President Obama will play a major role in the decision-making process, and the commander in chief historically has voiced strong support for the Afghanistan War. Unlike Iraq, Obama may not want to see complete withdrawal on his watch.