The federal budget to be released Monday will shed more light on President Obama's vision for a slimmer military, and it will be closely watched in Hampton Roads, where defense spending is a pillar of the economy/.../
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta isn't banking on the deeper sequestration cuts, and Monday's budget won't reflect that scenario. In fact, Panetta says the sequestration cuts would force the Pentagon to revamp its entire military strategy.
Not planning for this worst case represents "a major shortfall in the new defense strategy," said Todd Harrison of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.
"I think there's a real chance it will happen," he said. "I don't want to put a number on it, but there's a real chance."
He feels that way because the super-committee failed to find a solution, so it's unlikely that Congress will come to a consensus.
Options? Harrison sees four possible ways ahead after Monday. Congress could allow the sequestration cuts to happen, resulting in across-the-board whacking of the Pentagon budget. Or Congress could implement the cuts in a more targeted manner. Third, lawmakers could shift some base funding into the war budget, although that's a short-term solution.
The fourth option, which Harrison favors, would be to phase in the deeper cuts more gradually.
Regardless of the path, Harrison said the Pentagon should have a Plan B.
"The Pentagon can and should begin preparing for the possibility of more reductions, especially the prospect of sequestration, lest it be caught unprepared by a perfectly foreseeable contingency," he said.