The last-minute scramble by Congress to avoid the fiscal cliff averted the doomsday scenario of sequestration cuts kicking in this week, but Pentagon officials are fully aware that the war is not over.
In fact, they are steeling themselves for a new battle that could be worse. The new March 1 deadline ties sequestration’s automatic, across-the-board cuts of about 10 percent to what could be a more heated fight in Congress on lifting the debt ceiling, which is set to expire at the same time.
“The big point is (Congress) didn’t resolve this. They just delayed it,” said Todd Harrison, a defense budget expert at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, a Washington think tank. “And by moving the deadline to March 1, and by delaying it and linking it to the debt ceiling, they may increase the odds that sequestration will actually happen.”
That’s because debt ceiling negotiations could be even more contentious than last year’s showdown, some experts say. Congressional leaders could be asked to find big spending cuts that match the raising of the debt ceiling, as well as cuts in entitlements and in defense and nondefense accounts.
“This is like dodging a bullet, but knowing the guy has another round in the chamber,” Harrison said. “You may have dodged the bullet once, but it’s going to hard to dodge again.”