The Pentagon’s five-year strategic plan would cost as much as $300 billion more than the department has budgeted, according to a new analysis by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.
The report released Thursday concludes that the spending gap will require that the Pentagon adjust its strategy or that Congress lift the sequester spending caps that have resulted in defense budget cuts.
The report is just the latest sign that the Defense Department’s budget spending plans face choppy waters as the 2016 budget cycle nears and sequestration is poised to return.
The Pentagon’s five-year budget plan, submitted with its 2015 budget request, already exceeds the spending caps by $116 billion through 2019, under the assumption that Congress would reverse the sequester cuts.
That’s already a difficult premise to justify, said CSBA analyst Todd Harrison, but in fact, the Pentagon’s long-term budget shortfall is even deeper.
His new report finds that the Defense Department budget fails to properly fund Army and Marine Corps troops and Navy aircraft carriers included out in the Pentagon’s 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review, creating a $20 billion shortfall.
In addition, Harrison said at a Thursday briefing, the Pentagon is likely counting on $50 billion to $100 billion in war funding — which is not subject to the budget caps — for the base budget over the next five years, as well as assuming it will recoup $31 billion through military compensation reform that Congress has been loath to accept.
The budget also takes into account “efficiency” savings totaling hundreds of billions of dollars over the next five years, Harrison wrote, even though acquisition programs historically exceed their initial cost estimates by 20 percent to 50 percent.
“If the budget caps are not raised by Congress, DoD could be forced to fund this shortfall by making additional cuts to force structure, personnel, acquisitions and readiness beyond what was proposed in the request — meaning greater risk in executing the strategy,” Harrison wrote. “Alternatively, DoD could adjust its strategy to fit within the BCA budget constraints.”
During the last major Pentagon drawdown in the 1990s, the Pentagon submitted five-year budget plans that incorrectly projected budget growth, Harrison said. He said he Pentagon’s existing plan appears equally flawed.
For its part, the Defense Department has said its 2016 budget request will take into account several potential budget scenarios. But there are signs that it’s planning for a budget without the sequestration caps.
After warning in its 2015 request, for instance, that the refueling of the USS George Washington aircraft carrier would be canceled if sequestration was not reversed in 2016, the Navy began funding the refueling earlier this year after Congress included the money in its 2015 authorization and appropriations bills.