Although finding a peaceful way to preclude Iran from getting nuclear weapons is obviously desirable, Washington will likely have to decide between two unattractive options: pursuing a military strike to prevent Iran from going nuclear or implementing a containment strategy to live with a nuclear Iran. The resort to force is always risky, and it would be particularly so in this case because a substantial number of U.S. troops are deployed near Iran. Whether force should be used will depend on the answers to three difficult questions: How close is Iran to achieving a nuclear weapons capability? Would an attack be effective? How might Iran retaliate, and what costs would the United States and its allies and partners suffer as a result? The risks of war must be weighed against the likelihood that containment could preserve regional stability and avert further proliferation, the demands of implementing and sustaining a containment strategy, and the inevitable reduction in the United States’ ability to defend vital interests elsewhere.
The consequences of a nuclear-armed Iran are grave, and the challenges of a containment strategy rooted in extended deterrence are hardly trivial.The military option should not be dismissed because of the appealing but flawed notion that containment is a relatively easy or low-risk solution to a very difficult problem. Instead, containment could require a far larger military presence than the United States has traditionally maintained in the Middle East, particularly in the form air and naval forces, as well as major investments in expensive capabilities, such as missile defenses, a modernized nuclear arsenal with more low-yield weapons, agile diplomacy to create and preserve cohesion among diverse allies, and far tougher economic sanctions than have heretofore been possible. Understanding and addressing these requirements will be crucial if the United States decides to attempt to contain a nuclear-armed Iran, either because it assesses the costs and difficulties of prevention as too high or because Iran crosses the nuclear threshold faster than expected and no better options remain. > read the full article