The idea that militarily relevant technology, from missiles to GPS guidance, is proliferating ever more rapidly around the globe is not a new one. Nor is anyone predicting that the United States will be technologically backwards in 2030. But leading thinkers are increasingly concerned that, in a few key areas, potential adversaries, especially China, will erode America's technological advantage, catch up, or even surpass us.
"There're going to be a lot of factors that go into determining who has the military-technical advantage in 2030. I suspect it'll still be us, but there are no guarantees," said Andrew Krepinevich head of the influential Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, speaking to AOL Defense after a talk on strategy he gave Tuesday. "We still have the world's best universities," he said -- though more and more of their students not only come from abroad but go back there after graduation -- and "we have a dynamic, entrepreneurial culture that's constantly inventing and reinventing."
"Just because somebody steals your blue prints on how to build an F-35 doesn't mean they can build it," said Krepinevich, let alone operate it with tactical skill.
Nevertheless, he went on, advantages America has counted on since the end of the Cold War are at least going to diminish. In particular, Krepinevich told AOL Defense, "I think we're losing the dominant position we had in precision guidance."
CSBA has been warning policymakers about a threat it calls "G-RAMM": guided rockets, artillery, mortars, and missiles using imitations of US precision-guidance technology. Such gadgetry was costly and cutting-edge in 1991, when American smart bombs wowed the world, but it's becoming cheaply and easily available today. There are similar concerns about unmanned air vehicles, since China, Iran, and even the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah are now experimenting with their own reconnaissance UAVs.
Drones to spot targets and smart weapons to strike them have been the eyes and fists of America's post-Cold War military machine. If adversaries can copy that combination, then the big, static airbases, seaports, and FOBs (Forward Operating Bases) that have underpinned US power projection for decades become horrifically vulnerable. Advanced radars and surface-to-air missiles could threaten our stealth aircraft, once seen as invisible silver bullets. Shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles, while unavailing against stealth fighters, could cripple the transport planes and helicopters essential to military mobility. Hackers and jammers could cut the control links to our drones. In one Army wargame this summer, an air- and sea-borne intervention against a well-armed enemy resulted in almost 500 (simulated) US and allied casualties in the first week.
Krepinevich, CSBA, and company argue that the counter to hostile drones and precision-guided weapons is directed energy: lasers. Anti-missile lasers can shoot down incoming projectiles at the speed of light, and they get infinite free reloads as long as you have electrical power, compared to current anti-missile missiles like the Patriot that are little faster than the weapons they are trying to intercept, significantly more expensive, and only get one shot. But lasers are far from a battle-ready weapon -- and sophisticated foes may well find ways to counter them.