President Barack Obama’s decision to send nearly 600 troops to Poland and other countries in the Baltic region is a political message and not a signal that the United States is contemplating going to war with Russia, according to defense experts.
Amid rising tensions over Russia’s stance on and presence in the Ukraine, the Pentagon announced April 22 that a company-sized element, around 150 troops, of the Army’s Vicenza, Italy-based 173rd Airborne Brigade Combat Team (ABCT) will be dispatched to Poland this week, with 450 additional Soldiers from the 173rd ABCT arriving for similar exercises in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
Poland, a staunch ally of the United States, is in a precarious location, neighboring the Ukraine along its southeast border while being separated from Russia by Belarus farther north.
“Russia’s aggression in Ukraine has renewed our resolve to strengthening NATO’s defense plans and capabilities, and to demonstrate our continued commitment to collective defense in reinforcing our NATO allies in Central and Eastern Europe,” Pentagon Press Secretary, Navy RDML John Kirby, said April 22 during a briefing with reporters.
Since the Department of Defense (DoD) made its announcement, analyst have questioned if this move is foreshadowing a bigger engagement.
“We are not contemplating war; we are trying to shore up deterrence of a treaty ally, I am convinced,” Michael O’Hanlon, a senior-fellow on foreign with the Brookings Institution, told Seapower.
O’Hanlon, however, said he has advocated putting a brigade permanently in the Baltics if Russian President Vladimir Putin moves into eastern Ukraine with an invasion force, adding that this could be done without jeopardizing the U.S. military’s rebalance to the Asia-Pacific region.
Obama has made the rebalance a priority in 2012, saying it was necessary to refocus the U.S. military assets after more than a decade of ground wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Lawmakers and defense officials, however, recently have cautioned that if strict budget cuts from sequestration return in fiscal 2016, the rebalance effort could run into road blocks in meeting its long-term goals.
Todd Harrison, a defense analyst for the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, told Seapower that if the DoD wants to increase its presence and focus in the Asia-Pacific region, then that will necessarily come at the expense of Europe and the Middle East.
“If DoD must maintain or increase its focus in Europe because of Russia or in the Middle East because of Iran, then that puts the pivot at risk. With reduced resources, DoD must make difficult strategic choices,” he said.
Dakota Wood, a senior research fellow for defense programs for the Heritage Foundation, said the 150 troops sent to Poland does not mean much in terms of capability but should be viewed as a political message.
“In terms of exercising with these countries, it amounts to an ability to work with various small units on patrolling, perhaps small arms training, rifle/pistol marksmanship and similar small-unit skills. This deployment does not equate to an ability to practice larger combined arms maneuver training nor does it reflect a militarily-significant combat capability,” he told Seapower.
Wood believes the actions by the Pentagon will be viewed as a gesture but no real obstacle or counter to what it is currently going on in Eastern Ukraine/.../