As a U.S.-led coalition of nations tries to prevent the Syrian town of Kobani from falling into the hands of the self-proclaimed Islamic State, failure to do so could have as much to do with resources as it does with the flaws of a strategy that, for now, is mostly reliant on airstrikes alone.
That's because U.S. Central Command, or Centcom, is balancing growing demands for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) assets across Iraq and Syria with keeping an eye on Afghanistan, where the United States and NATO allies still have roughly 40,000 troops stationed.
A senior Defense Department official told Foreign Policy that with so many of Centcom's ISR capabilities tied up in Afghanistan, there is a limitation on what can be done in Iraq and Syria.
Ticking off the number of towns and cities that the U.S. military has been called upon to protect, the senior Pentagon official said: "You can't defend Kobani, Baghdad, Mosul, Erbil, and Sinjar," plus conduct strikes against the Islamic State in places such as Raqqa, with a limited number of ISR orbits to collect necessary intelligence. In the end, choices have to be made about what's most important, he said.
In Syria, the United States has also been monitoring the actions of the Khorasan Group, a shadowy cell of senior al Qaeda operatives who are reportedly plotting attacks against Western targets. The United States struck the group on Sept. 22, the first night of strikes in Syria.
But there are mounting calls for the United States to do more, especially in towns like Kobani, where Syrian Kurdish fighters have been holding off the Islamic State for weeks.
On Tuesday, Oct. 7, the U.S. military said strikes around Kobani destroyed five Islamic State armed vehicles, a tank, and a unit of fighters. According to Centcom, the United States has conducted 13 strikes near Kobani and one at the Kobani border crossing with Turkey.
But before U.S. jets or drones can attack a target, the military has to meticulously build an intelligence picture of the targeted area. It does this predominantly through full-motion video feeds collected by unmanned aircraft, such as the U.S. Air Force's Predator or Reaper drones. In Iraq, but especially in Syria, where there is no U.S. ground presence, building an accurate intelligence picture through airborne ISR is also crucial to avoiding civilian casualties.
In late August, President Barack Obama authorized manned and unmanned reconnaissance flights over Syria to start building an intelligence picture that could help develop specific Islamic State targets to attack. About a month passed between when the United States starting flying recon missions to when it launched airstrikes.
There have been more than 700 ISR sorties flown in support of operations in Iraq and Syria, according to Air Force Maj. Gen. Jeffrey Harrigian, the Pentagon's assistant deputy chief of staff for operations, plans, and requirements.
"We're working very closely with Centcom to understand what the requirement is, because, as I alluded to earlier, the situation continues to develop, and we're better understanding where we need assets, when we need assets, so that continues to be a discussion," Harrigan told reporters at the Pentagon on Sept. 29.
When asked whether the demand for ISR orbits is limiting U.S. military action in Iraq and Syria, a Centcom spokesman said he would not comment on matters pertaining to intelligence resources.
For the military, an orbit usually means keeping one aircraft flying over the target area 24/7. According to Mark Gunzinger of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, it requires three to four aircraft to support a 24/7 ISR orbit using manned or unmanned aircraft. A Reaper orbit (or combat air patrol) requires four MQ-9s; a Predator orbit requires four MQ-1s.
About half of Centcom's ISR orbits are tied up in Afghanistan, with no big shift in resources since airstrikes began in Iraq in Aug. 8, the senior Defense Department official said without divulging the actual number of orbits.
But that's all about to change, as the United States plans to draw down the number of troops in Afghanistan to just 9,800 by January.
Speaking to reporters last week via video link from Kabul, Gen. John Campbell, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, said he's expecting his air platforms -- to include ISR, close air support, and medevac -- to be "greatly diminished" as the number of troops goes down.
That means there will be more eyes flying over Iraq and Syria, but fewer flying in Afghanistan, which poses its own risks -- both to U.S. troops and to the Afghan security forces/.../