In an Aug. 17 memo, Jacob Lew, director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), asked federal agencies for 2013 spending plans based on two scenarios: a 5 percent cut and a 10 percent cut from the 2011 enacted discretionary level.
For the Pentagon, a 10 percent reduction to its 2011 spending level would reduce the defense base budget to $477 billion, a level very close to what would happen under the 2011 Budget Control Act's "trigger" scenario.
According to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA), the trigger provision would automatically cut the Defense Department's 2013 base budget to approximately $472 billion.
At $472 billion, the Pentagon would be returned to its 2007 level of spending, adjusting for inflation, according to CSBA.
"Given the abruptness of the cuts imposed under the trigger and the real possibility that Congress may not be able to reach a deficit reduction compromise in time to avoid the trigger, DoD should immediately begin contingency planning for how to handle such a reduction," CSBA analyst Todd Harrison said in a white paper earlier this month.