In early 2002, the Department of Defense (DoD) unveiled the results of its Nuclear Posture Review (NPR). The NPR was conducted to meet a congressional requirement for a “comprehensive review” of the policy, strategy, plans, stockpile, and infrastructure for US nuclear forces. It was the second such review. A similar undertaking was completed in 1994.
Few significant changes resulted from that effort. The requirement for a new NPR reflected the belief that “an end-to-end review of US nuclear weapons strategy, requirements, and posture [was] overdue.”
The latest NPR examined changes in the post-Cold War security environment and identified contingencies in which nuclear forces might play a part. The effort defined the relationships among nuclear forces and other military capabilities, set objectives for nuclear and related capabilities, and outlined programs to further these ends. The review determined that, in light of favorable changes in US-Russian relations, nuclear arms could be reduced.
Results of the NPR have been controversial. Most of the criticism has involved claims that the review will lead to greater reliance on nuclear weapons, an expansion in the set of states targeted by US nuclear forces, insufficient progress in reducing nuclear arsenals, and an increased likelihood of nuclear use. All of these are important issues and each will be addressed in the discussion below. Little attention has been devoted, however, to a central finding of the NPR: the need for a “New Triad” of nuclear and nonnuclear offensive capabilities, defensive means, and defense-industrial infrastructure to supplant the Cold War nuclear triad of submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), and long-range bombers.
Yet this change has major implications for US defense planning and programs. After describing the nature and purpose of the New Triad in greater detail, this paper will focus on some of these implications. The purpose of the paper is not to provide a detailed critique of the New Triad, but simply to consider how this collection of capabilities, as it evolves over the coming decades, might strengthen the security of the United States, its allies, and friends.