“If the B-21 goes down the path of the B-2 and it has a slowly decreasing number of aircraft required — say if it goes from 100 to 50 to 21 — then … the per-unit costs would go up,” said Mark Gunzinger, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Lower production numbers undermine economies of scale. Additionally, “the cost to develop and test the aircraft is going to be fixed, and if you divide that by a smaller number [of planes purchased] then the overall unit cost increases,” he explained…Gunzinger said it’s unlikely that the Raider would suffer the same fate as the Spirit because the strategic environment has changed greatly since the B-2 production line was shut down. Potential adversaries continue to develop more sophisticated anti-access weapons, he noted. “That operational environment is going to get even more challenging,” Gunzinger said. “So I could see that number … [of B-21s procured] increasing from 100 rather than decreasing. And that would have the effect of reducing the per-unit cost.”
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