Studies

Selective Disclosure: A Strategic Approach to Long-Term Competition

Since World War II, The United States as relied upon gaining and maintaining a qualitative edge over its adversaries. Moreover, it has historically relied upon classified capabilities to deliver a warfighting advantage. However, to the extent that competitors have little to no understanding of our classified capabilities, their assessments of the military balance with the United States will be distorted. Specifically, to the extent they discount real but classified capabilities, they may be unduly confident in their prospects of success on the battlefield, perhaps even to the extent that they would be emboldened to use force against the United States.

In Selective Disclosure, Thomas G. Mahnken discusses the potential strategic opportunities for selectively disclosing military capabilities. He outlines the role of information in long-term competition and the advantages of both capability concealment and demonstration. He also describes the ways a government can intentionally and selectively reveal new capabilities to achieve strategic ends. Dr. Mahnken uses the B-1 Lancer, F-117 Nighthawk, B-2 Spirit, and the Homing Overlay Experiments as case studies for different methods of selectively disclosing information on new capabilities to strategic advantage.

Decisions about what capabilities to reveal to achieve an intended strategic effect, how to reveal them, and when, as well as decisions regarding what to conceal and for how long play an important role in great-power competition. China and Russia have already selectively disclosed information about advanced capabilities to strategic effect against the United States and its allies. Selective disclosure can involve a single, discrete capability, or it can be cumulative, designed to provoke confusion, impose costs, and trigger disassociated adversary responses. The U.S. government needs to think seriously about the role that selectively revealing or concealing information should play in defense strategy.

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