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The recent DARPA AlphaDogfight Trials (ADT) were an impressive display of both technology and competition in support of advancing American airpower. As part of a broader DARPA technology and experimentation effort called Air Combat Evolution (ACE), in just over a year, the ADT has pushed the state-of-the-art for the use of agent-based modeling and artificial intelligence () applications to air warfare. Much of the initial reporting and commentary about ADT focused on the unambiguous final result when AI defeated the human pilot in each of their five dogfights. Here, as in the past, when such a decisive result occurs, some herald it as the end of an era and the dawn of a new one, like the shift from cavalry to tanks. Conversely, skeptics highlight the unrealistic conditions that applied to the test, such as the fact that the ADT used “perfect” data during the scenario conditions, a fact that any experienced pilot or controller would identify as unrealistic. In the ADT, this meant that a kill was adjudicated by reaction time in close quarters, which gives a significant inherent advantage to the AI These artificialities aside, DARPA appropriately chose a technically challenging but simplified tactical problem for this cutting-edge experimentation in air warfare. What then should we learn from the experiment?

Washington, DC, August 15, 2020 – Given the rapid pace of change in Asia during the last 20 years, assessing China’s longer-term trajectory represents a huge challenge for allied security planners.  Despite the geostrategic disruptions of the 21st century thus far, Western policymakers continue to rely upon the same periodic defense assessment principles that were practiced during the relatively stable Cold War period.  The policies that result must frequently be revised, often at great cost, in the face of frequent economic, political, and technological upheavals in Asia.

The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) has added three new members to its professional staff, enhancing its analytical and editorial capabilities while underscoring its commitment to diversity and inclusion across its professional ranks.

The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA), a premier institution for understanding the future of international competition and conflict, today announced the appointment of Dr. Chris Bassler as a Senior Fellow, effective immediately. Chris joins CSBA following an exceptionally distinguished career in government, and he will contribute to the organization’s research on joint aerospace capabilities, maritime operating concepts, and overall U.S. military strategy.

CSBA today announced the appointment of David Zikusoka as a Research Fellow in Aerospace Studies. Dave will join CSBA on February 10 and will conduct research and analysis on integrated concepts of air, space and cyber power, assessing the impact of all aerospace domains on U.S. and allied strategy. 

The Air Force isn’t well structured to carry out the National Defense Strategy, and in order to deter a major war, it must add more and stealthier aircraft, expand its use of unmanned systems, accelerate the development of new technology, and learn to operate from more dispersed locations, according to a new report from the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.