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CSBA CEO Thomas G. Mahnken on a New Maritime Strategy for China

The February 2022 issue of Proceedings, the journal of the United States Naval Institute, features an article by Dr. Thomas G. Mahnken, President and CEO of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA), as part of its ongoing American Sea Power Project. In “A Maritime Strategy to Deal with China,” Dr. Mahnken assesses the current deficit of U.S. strategic thinking about the PRC and argues that a maritime strategy for China should seek to address those elements of Chinese behavior that are of greatest concern to the United States and its allies.

In the News

A Maritime Strategy to Deal with China

The United States today suffers from a critical deficit in strategic thinking about the most consequential challenge of the current era: the rise of China and the threat it poses to U.S. interests in the western Pacific and beyond. Addressing that deficit is a matter of the utmost importance and urgency. The prospect of 21st-century great power war is terra incognita.

Analysis

Shield of the Republic: Heeding the Lessons of the Cold War (with Hal Brands and Bill Kristol)

Mystery guest host (Bill Kristol) joins Eric for a discussion with Johns Hopkins SAIS Professor Hal Brands about his new book the Twilight Struggle. They discuss the lessons of America's cold war strategic competition with the USSR for today's era of strategic competition with China and Russia—the role of strategy, economic competition, political warfare, and more.

Analysis

China’s Ambitions for AI-Driven Future Warfare

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) sees advanced technology as one of the keys to victory in its challenge to global order in this century. CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping has pronounced that the world is on the precipice of a “fourth industrial revolution” centered upon artificial intelligence and autonomous technology. China is mobilizing every sector of society to contribute to the state’s grand technological ambitions in its long-term struggle against the United States. 

Nowhere is this clearer than in the realm of military affairs. China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is racing to integrate futuristic technologies into its historically less-advanced military. The PLA has coalesced around a new organizing concept for how it thinks that advanced technologies will affect warfare in this century. “Intelligentization” represents China’s vision for a new revolution in military affairs. This little-known new concept is driving the PLA’s modernization efforts and signals the expansive ambitions the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has in challenging American military dominance globally.

Press Releases

CSBA Welcomes New Congressional Defense Seminar Series Fellows

CSBA is proud to announce a new cohort of fellows for the CSBA Congressional Defense Seminar Series. This seminar series is an in-depth bipartisan program for Congressional staff members. This evening series of topical seminars aim to provide staffers with the tools to master the conceptual foundations of defense policy as well as the intricacies of contemporary national security processes.

Analysis

Schrodinger’s Military? Challenges for China’s Military Modernization Ambitions

Xi Jinping wants China to have a “world-class military” by the middle of the century. While the country has undergone a historic military modernization effort in the last two decades, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) remains a regional military power, albeit one with growing ambitions to achieve regional dominance and expand its ability to project power around the globe.

Is Xi’s dream of a world-class PLA realistic? His vision largely depends on PLA efforts to increase jointness and achieve intelligentization.

By all accounts, the Chinese military is on the march. The PLA’s annual budget grows at a rapid pace year after year. The PLA Navy is now larger than the U.S. Navy. “Carrier-killer” missiles attempt to threaten America’s ability to project power in the Indo-Pacific. The PLA’s increasingly sophisticated nuclear arsenal grows at an alarming pace. But these raw numbers alone do not capture some of the more subtle measures of warfighting capabilities, such as organization, training, education, and doctrinal concepts. These seldom noted yet critical measures of military power may tell a different story about the PLA’s pace of growth and ability to achieve its ambitions.