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Procedural and political hurdles “make it difficult to see how a substantial defense buildup on the order of the $54 billion proposed by the Trump administration can be realized,” said Katherine Blakeley, research fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. “The wide gulfs between the political parties, and between the defense hawks and the fiscal hawks, will not be closed soon.”

In the absence of a budget deal, defense hawks will seek to pump more money into the overseas contingency operations account, which is not constrained by the BCA caps, Blakeley noted. “Congress’ window for funding defense — and the rest of the government — before the end of the 2017 fiscal year is short and closing fast.”

What might be the most tantalizing point behind the cyber attack theory is that it’s technically possible, Bryan Clark, a naval analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and former aide to former Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Jonathan Greenert, told USNI News on Thursday.

I think risk aversion partly explains the timid U.S. response to China.  In particular, fears of provoking China probably influenced the Obama administration’s decisions.

Several interrelated assumptions underpinned this reluctance to confront China more forcefully.  It should be noted that these assumptions informed Obama’s predecessors as well.  First, the United States assumed that engagement could coax China into becoming a responsible stakeholder.  Second, Washington was convinced that it needed China’s cooperation on a host of global challenges, ranging from climate change to nonproliferation to North Korea.  Not surprisingly, preserving stable Sino-U.S. relations was the prime directive while confrontation with China was anathema.

“DoD [Department of Defense] should no longer assume that its strike aircraft will always be able to use short-range, direct attack ‘gravity’ weapons against targets that are covered by advanced point defense systems,” Mark Gunzinger, a former B-52 pilot and current analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, said. “This applies across the spectrum of conflict, not just conventional warfare.” Gunzinger notes that even for a stealth bomber, a standoff weapon will likely be a necessity. “Attacking these defended targets will require medium-range standoff attack weapons,” Gunzinger said.

Capt. Jan van Tol, USN Ret., senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington, says the USS John McCain’s capabilities as a destroyer should have allowed it to avoid its Aug. 21, 2017, collision “even at the last moment,” and discusses its aftermath and how to break the US Navy’s pattern of accidents during an interview with Defense & Aerospace Report Editor Vago Muradian. The interview was conducted at CSBA’s Washington headquarters.

One grounding might be an isolated incident. Four ship collisions and 17 sailors dead in the span of eight months, that’s a trend. And not a good one. With some insight into what might be going on inside a troubled Navy, Federal Drive with Tom Temin turns to Bryan Clark, former special assistant to the Chief of Naval Operations and now a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.